Now in its 48th annual edition, the STOCK
TRADER’S ALMANAC 2015 (Wiley; October 2014; 978-1-118-91760-2; $50;
Spiral-bound paperback and E-book) is back with its lexotone
cover with an attractive spiral and silver foil stamping that provides a
more-user friendly format that lies flat when open, making it easier to
write notes, lighter and more portable. This is second year with the new
design that harkens back to the original format that Yale Hirsch
pioneered over 40 years ago, proving that everything old is new again.
Brand new for this edition, the editors reached out to some of their
favorite minds on Wall Street to share a brief outlook for the coming
year. Eighteen brave souls took the plunge, creating quite a cross
section of disciplines and enlightening opinions, including Sam Stovall,
Jack Ablin, Alan M. Newman, Louis Navellier, Daniel Turov, John Person,
and more.
With 2015 being a pre-election year, for this edition each chart
contains typical pre-election year performance compared to all years.
“Pre-election years are notoriously the best year of the four-year cycle
and fifth years of decades are the strongest, so 2015 has some solid
history behind it,” says the Almanac’s Editor-in-chief
Jeffrey A. Hirsch. “The Dow has not had a loss in a pre-election year
since 1939. This year’s Almanac explains why a 50% move in the Dow is
possible from the 2014 low to the 2015 high and never-before-shown
Seventh Year of Presidential Terms."
“We are now in the middle of the worst two quarters of the 4-year cycle,
Q2–3 of the midterm year. So far, the three major U.S. equity indices
are up about 1–3% for the first two months of Q2, better than average.
This is a testament to the strength of the sixth year of the 4-year
cycle, a president’s second midterm year, as compared to the first
midterm year. Since 1901 there have been six previous presidents that
have served a sixth and seventh year. Except for 1919 during the
post–WWI-armistice rally, seventh years have been a little weaker than
other pre-election years, likely due to lower excitement with a
president the country has become apathetic toward,” Hirsch adds.
See Hirsch's 2015 Outlook here.
2015 is also of course the fifth year of a decade, which is also the
best year of the decennial pattern by a long shot. Fifth years have by
far and away the best record, averaging 28.3% for the Dow and its
predecessors in the past 130 years. There has only been on losing “5”
year in 13 decades. 2005 was a post-election year, the weakest of that
more influential –year cycle, and the Dow was off a mere 0.6%, S&P was
up at 3.0%. 2015 is a pre-election year, the strongest of the 4 –year
cycle, but it is also the seventh year of the president’s term, which
has not been as strong.
Prior to President Obama, there have been six previous presidents that
served a seventh year in office since 1901; Presidents Wilson (1919),
Roosevelt (1939), Eisenhower (1959), Reagan (1987), Clinton (1999), and
G.W. Bush (2007).
DJIA and S&P 500 averaged 13.0% and 5.6% respectively in seventh years,
and 1939 was the only negative seventh year for either. DJIA’s 30.5%
gain in 1919 (on the heels of the big 45.5% post-WWI-armistice rally)
lifts its average performance in seventh years when compared to S&P 500.
Seventh years follow the typical pre-presidential election year pattern
quite closely leading to similar above-average full-year gains. The
market crash of October 1987 is clearly visible. It is also interesting
to note how the S&P was weaker in all six seventh years of presidential
terms.
See the Pre-Election-Year Market Outlook here.
This must-have investment tool has a wealth of information organized in
a calendar format. It alerts readers to little-known market patterns and
tendencies that help investors forecast market trends with accuracy and
confidence.
The data and analyses in the Almanac are relied upon by
savvy professionals, from well-known money managers to journalists.
Allowing shrewd investors to maximize profit potential, STA is
the ultimate desktop market data bank, showing the market’s likely
direction every hour, day, week, and month based on historical
precedent. STA transforms investing into a business
framework and makes investing easier by presenting new techniques and
tools, providing pertinent statistics on past market performance, and
supplying forms necessary for portfolio management.
Created by Jeff Hirsch and the Hirsch Organization, tools and strategies
contained in STA include:
The January Barometer: Predicts that stock market
performance during the month of January sets the direction for the
entire year. In fact, every down January for the S&P 500 since 1950 has
been followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction or a
flat year. January’s first five days are also an early warning system.
The last 41 up First Five Days were followed by full-year gains 35 times
for an 85.4% accuracy ration and 14.0% average gain in all 41 years. In
pre-election presidential year this indicator has a solid record. The
last 16 pre-presidential election year 12 full years followed the
direction for the First Five Days; however 2007 and 2011 did not. The
full- month January Barometer has a better record as 14 of the last 16
full years have followed January’s direction.
The Best Six Months Switching Strategy AKA Sell In May:
The stock market tends to make almost all of its gains during just six
particular months of the year. In most years, the rest of the time
traders would be better off putting their money in T-bills and going
fishing. STA has upped the ante on this old favorite by combining the
benefits of the Best Six Months with a technical timing indicator and
the four-year cycle, nearly tripling the Best Six Months results with
four trades every four years. The Almanac provides detailed
instructions on how to implement trading strategies based on the Best
Months Switching Strategies and some simple techniques for determining
what to trade when implementing this strategy, including a sampling of
tradable mutual funds and ETFs.
Four-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle: Our
presidential elections every four years affect the economy and the stock
market – just as the moon affects the tides. Electing a president every
four years has set in motion a 4-year political stock market. Most bear
markets take place in the first or second years after elections. Then,
the market improves. Typically each administration usually does
everything in its power to juice up the economy so that voters are in a
positive mood at election time. Investors should feel somewhat more
secure going into 2015. There hasn't been a down year in the third year
of a presidential term since war-torn 1939, Dow off 2.9%
In addition to access to the annual STA print edition, a subscription to
the digital product ALMANAC INVESTOR provides twice
weekly e-mail alerts that feature stock market forecasting, indicators,
and seasonal patterns, alerting users to the best/worst trading days,
market changes, stock and ETF recommendations and updates, financial
commentary, overall market sentiment; monthly enewsletters that provide
a guide to market patterns, cycles, fundamental developments, strategies
and stock selection, and updates and expands the strategies outlined in
the Stock Trader’s Almanac; and access to handy research tools
that enable subscribers to do their own research and update market
indicators and strategies.
Other products from the Hirsch Organization include: THE LITTLE
BOOK OF STOCK MARKET CYCLES (Wiley; August 2012; Hardcover and E-book,
$22.95 and SUPER BOOM: WHY THE DOW JONES WILL HIT 38,820 AND
HOW YOU CAN PROFIT FROM IT (Wiley; April 2011; Hardcover and E- $24.95).
The Stock Trader’s Almanac Blog (http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/) provides
daily trading sentiment and keeps Almanac followers up to date on
indicators, hot-topics, market happenings, speaking, news, and media
coverage.
Contact the publicist:
Melissa Connors
Publicity Manager
mconnors@wiley.com
201-748-6834