Peter Treadway was the Chief Economist at Fannie Mae from 1979 to 1981.
In his career as an economist, investment strategist and investor, he
had a first-hand view of the U.S. savings and loan crisis in the late
1980s, a ring side seat for the Mexican and Asian crises of the 1990s as
well as the technology bust of Y2K, also known as the year 2000 problem.
In his new book, Investing In the Age of Sovereign Defaults (Wiley;
January 2013; ISBN: 978-1-1182-4721-1; Hardcover; 320 pages), he claims
that the governments of the major Western democracies including Western
Europe, United States and Japan are going broke and are on the way to
default.
“They already have huge debts. And now they are facing a huge increase
in health and retirement entitlements to be honored. They will default
on these one way or the other on their many obligations.”
“The 2008 crisis for me was déjà vu all over again but on a larger
scale. I feel that I have a story to tell,” Treadway explains when was
asked how did he come to write the book.
According to the book, the rise of populism has resulted in the
rejection of the gold standard and its replacement with fiat money under
the control of populist oriented central banks, the adoption of policies
by governments that socialize risk and the enactment of massive health
and welfare entitlements that cannot be honored.
The book starts with a forecast that the advanced Western nations are on
the way to default, offering a unique explanation for why this default
will occur based on the idea that democracy suffers from a fatal
attraction to populism.
Including a review of the perilous fiscal state of Western Europe, the
United States, and Japan, Treadway addresses how the informed investor
may want to turn to long-run investing strategies, which include major
U.S. and non-U.S. (non-financial) corporations.
“There will be two important positive phenomena which investors must
take advantage of in setting their investment strategies. The first is
globalization. The second is the ever accelerating progress of
technology which will provide high returns to private sector companies,”
Treadway advised.
The book is essential reading for investors looking for what it will
take to protect their investments—and even profit—during the coming
sovereign default crisis.
Investing In the Age of Sovereign Defaults is now available for purchase
online and at retailers nationwide in both print and all e-book formats.
For a list of retailers, visit http://www.wiley.com/buy/9781118247211.
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About the Author: Peter Treadway is currently the principal at
Historical Analytics LLC, a consulting and investment management firm
dedicated to global portfolio management. He has taken a special
interest in Asia and the emerging markets, and is spending half of his
time in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia.
