The American
Geophysical Union and Wiley today
announced that Earth’s
Future, a new open access journal, has published its first group
of articles. Created to reflect the risks and opportunities associated
with environmental changes and challenges, Earth’s Future features
primary research across disciplines and seeks to connect it to policy
through editorials, essays, reviews, and other commentary pieces.
Contributors tackle solutions to such grand challenges as population
increase, industrial and agricultural development, urbanization, climate
change, geohazards, energy, food and water resource sustainability and
security.
The inaugural group of articles includes:
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Commentaries
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“Conservation
Easements and Mining: The Case of Chile”
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SUMMARY: Private protected areas (PPAs) are a popular tool for
conserving natural habitats. In many cases, the goal of
promoting PPA creation by private landowners is to create a
set of protected areas that fill gaps in the state protected
areas. Thus, in many cases the burden of fulfilling
international treaties such as the Convention on Biological
Diversity is passed to the private sector. However, there are
many legal models for PPAs, and they do not all provide the
same kinds of protection as state protected areas. We examine
a proposed law establishing PPAs in Chile, and ask whether
this would provide any protection against a growing threat to
conservation in the region, mining. We conclude that the law
streamlines creating PPAs in Chile, but does not create a
legal framework capable of nature protection in the long term.
As mining conflicts with conservation gain prominence around
the world, it is important to consider the role of nature
preservation by the private sector and under what conditions
this can compensate for lack of state protection.
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Meredith Root-Bernstein, Oxford University (Oxford, U.K.),
Martin Montecinos Carvajal, Oxford University (Oxford, U.K.),
Richard Ladle, Oxford University (Oxford, U.K.), Paul Jepson,
Oxford University (Oxford, U.K.), Fabián Jaksic, Pontificia
Universidad Católica de Chile (Santiago, Chile)
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“Knowing
the Unknowns”
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SUMMARY: How the future will unfold depends in large measure
upon what remains to be discovered. Fifty years after the
first photo of the whole Earth was taken, debate rages about
the interlinked future of two variables that have been
responding to human action for more than a million years. The
more we know about the history of albedo and atmospheric
composition, the less we may have to exercise our imagination
of disaster in times to come.
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Russell Seitz, Harvard University (Cambridge, Mass.)
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Communications
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“The
Future of Agriculture Over the Ogallala Aquifer – Solutions to
Grow Crops More Efficiently with Limited Water”
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SUMMARY: In some areas of the Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer,
farmers can no longer pump enough water for crops. Water-use
efficiency and farmer’s profitability can be enhanced by
adopting site-specific agronomic management identified by
coupling precision agricultural technologies with crop models.
Policies grounded in science are critical to ensure long-term
sustainability.
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Bruno Basso, Michigan State University (East Lansing, Mich.),
Anthony Kendall, Michigan State University (East Lansing,
Mich.), and David W. Hyndman, Michigan State University (East
Lansing, Mich.)
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Editorial
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“Earth’s
Future: Navigating the Science of the Anthropocene”
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SUMMARY: Understanding and managing our new and future
relation with the Earth requires research and knowledge
spanning diverse fields. Earth’s Future will explore and
foster interactions among the Earth and environmental
sciences, ecology, economics, the health and social sciences,
and more. Its mission is to focus on the Earth as an
interactive, evolving system to help researchers, policy
makers, and the public navigate the science.
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Guy P. Brasseur, Climate Service Center (Germany) and Founding
Editor, Earth’s Future, and Ben van der Pluijm,
University of Michigan (Ann Arbor, Mich.) and Editor In Chief, Earth’s
Future
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Essay
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“How
Far Have We Come in Earth System Science?”
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SUMMARY: Since the term ‘Earth System Science’ was first
coined more than 25 years ago, this field has expanded
into many different areas, including both geobiology and
astrobiology. The biggest emphasis by far remains the
interactions of humans and their environment and the
implications for our immediate future, especially with
regard to climate. But the more general investigation of
how life coevolves with its environment and what makes
life possible in the first place, is also a fascinating
area for future study.
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James Kasting, Penn State University (State College, Pa.)
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Research Articles
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“A
Geological Perspective On Sea-level Rise and Its Impacts Along the
U.S. mid-Atlantic Coast”
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SUMMARY: An analysis of historic sea-level rise shows a
significant rate increase since the Industrial Revolution.
Based on modern data the authors predict a sea-level rise of
as much as 37” (96cm) by the end of the 21st century.
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Kenneth G. Miller, Rutgers University (Piscataway, N.J.),
Robert E. Kopp, Rutgers University (Piscataway, N.J.),
Benjamin P. Horton, Rutgers University (Piscataway, N.J.),
James V. Browning, Rutgers University (Piscataway, N.J.),
Andrew C. Kemp, Tufts University (Medford, Mass.)
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Learn
more about this article
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“An
Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?”
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SUMMARY: Global warming first became evident beyond the bounds of
natural variability in the 1970s, but increases in global mean
surface temperatures have stalled in the 2000s. Increases in
atmospheric greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, continue and
create an energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere even as the
planet warms to adjust to this imbalance. An energy imbalance is
manifested not just as surface atmospheric or ground warming, but
also as melting sea and land ice, and heating of the oceans.
Indeed more than 90% of the heat goes into the oceans and, with
melting land ice, causes sea level to rise. Only about 20% of the
hiatus can be linked to changes in the energy imbalance from the
quiet Sun from 2003 to 2009, and aerosols from minor volcanic
eruptions. Moreover, while there is a hiatus in the rise of global
mean surface temperatures over the past decade or so, there is no
slowdown in sea level rise, increases in ocean heat content, and
melting of Arctic sea ice and land ice. Global warming has not
stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways.
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Kevin E. Trenberth and John T. Fasull, National Center for
Atmospheric Research (Boulder, Co.)
Earth’s Future joins AGU’s prestigious portfolio of
peer-reviewed research publications, including Geophysical
Research Lettersand Journal
of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres. Both are ranked among the
top ten most-highly cited research publications on climate change
over the past decade. Editor in Chief Ben van der Pluijm is the B.R.
Clark Collegiate Professor of Geology and Professor of the
Environment at the University of Michigan. His research focuses on
active and past deformation of the Earth’s crust, and his teaching
and outreach target the societal dimensions of global change. To
learn more about Earth’s Future, visit: earthsfuture.agu.org.
About AGU
The American Geophysical Union is
dedicated to advancing the Earth and space sciences for the benefit of
humanity through its scholarly publications, conferences, and outreach
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