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Perfect Storm for Continued Volatility

10/16/2012

In the seventh edition of the trader-tested and investor-approved COMMODITY TRADER’S ALMANAC 2013 (Wiley; October 2012; $50.00; 978-1-118-15986-6; Hardcover & ebook), co-editors John Person, a 30-year veteran of the futures and options industry, and Stock Trader’s Almanac editor-in-chief Jeff Hirsch deliver several new trading strategies and features.

According to John Person, “2013 promises to be a dynamic year for commodity markets. No matter which party is elected, energy reform will likely be on the slate. If we do see a shift toward cleaner burning fuels, then natural gas may see ramped-up production, creating a shift in fossil fuel demand.” He adds, “The first half of 2012 left the U.S. in a serious weather situation, wreaking havoc on farmers and ranchers. Earlier than normal hot and dry conditions reduced yields in corn and soybeans as well as creating massive wildfires throughout Colorado. The global economy, hurt by European debt crisis and economic contraction in China, was partially to blame for decelerated U.S. economic growth. As a result, in June 2012, Ben Bernanke lowered the Federal Reserve’s estimated gross domestic production (GDP) at 1.9% to 2.4% from a previous estimate of 2.4% to 2.9%. The decelerating pace of job growth in the U.S. led the Federal Reserve to reaffirm and commit to keeping a near-zero interest rate policy through 2014.”

Person says, “We believe we will have the perfect storm for continued volatility for stocks, bonds, and safe haven instruments like gold and silver, agricultural markets, as well as foreign currencies in 2013 as a result of this ongoing global economic situation and the severe drought that devastated the U.S. corn and soybean crops,”

Severe volatility in oil, precious metals, and food prices causes millions to be lost as well as gained in the commodities market. Despite the erratic ups and downs, there is a cyclical pattern to commodity markets, with weather, holidays, human behaviors and other factors impacting demand and supply, and ultimately, the price of a commodity. Incorporating the same format that has made Stock Trader’s Almanac the ultimate desktop market data bank for more than 45 years, the COMMODITY TRADER’S ALMANAC 2013 is a vital resource of historical reference, seasonal patterns, and proven trading tactics. The book includes monthly almanac pages, market highlights, detailed statistics on past market price action, historical strengths and weaknesses, seasonal tendencies, and information on the beginning and end for both rallies and breaks.

Seasonalities and their respective potential risks and rewards have been identified for 20 different commodities on both the long and the short side. In addition to the top 16 traditional commodities, the Almanac includes data for how the U.S. dollar fares against four of the top major currencies (the euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and the British pound).

The new 2013 edition has several new additions and changes, including the addition of heating oil, including two new trades that replace the January short S&P trade and the October long corn trade; and advanced options strategies and trading tactics. The new edition has also added more exchange funds (EFTs) and exchange trade notes (ETNs). ETNs are similar to exchange traded funds, but differ in structure, as they are issued as senior debt notes, while ETFs represent a stake in an underlying market. Also, there is a complete listing of all the Futures First Notice, Last Trading, and Option Expiration Dates for all 20 markets covered.

The Almanac continues to explain how to translate trading stocks and ETFs from the study of seasonal commodity and Forex cycles. This takes seasonal studies further by including examples of highly correlated stocks that trade in tandem with the respective commodities.

Intended as a tool to assist participants when entering a new position or deciding to either move a stop loss or add to a new position, COMMODITY TRADER’S ALMANAC discusses:

  • How natural production and consumption cycles drive prices during specific times of the year
  • How the futures markets often factor in demand and supply concerns prior to the actual event
  • How similar, but different markets often react stronger or weaker to the natural consumption/production cycle
  • That prices are often driven by regularly recurring patterns (or cycles) surrounding the calendar year and how often these patterns have continued or reversed

COMMODITY TRADER’S ALMANAC 2013 is an indispensable resource for traders seeking to capitalize on the growing commodity and futures markets.

Other products from the Hirsch Organization include Stock Trader’s Almanac 2013 (Wiley; October 2012; $50.00; 978-1-118-15987-3; Hardcover & ebook) and Almanac Investor (https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com).Published every year since 1968, Stock Trader’s Almanac (STA) is a must-have investment tool with a wealth of information organized in a calendar format. It alerts readers to little-known market patterns and tendencies that help investors forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence. Allowing shrewd investors to maximize profit potential, STA is the ultimate desktop market data bank, showing the market’s likely direction every hour, day, week, and month based on historical precedent.

In addition to access to the annual STA print edition, a subscription to the digital product Almanac Investor provides twice weekly e-mail alerts that feature stock market forecasting, indicators, and seasonal patterns, best/worst trading days, market changes, stock and ETF recommendations and updates, financial commentary, and overall market sentiment; monthly enewsletters that provide a guide to market patterns, cycles, fundamental developments, strategies and stock selection, and updates and expands the strategies outlined in the Stock Trader’s Almanac and Commodity’s Trader’s Almanac; and access to handy research and portfolio tracking tools that enable subscribers to do their own research and update market indicators and strategies.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac Blog (http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/) provides daily trading sentiment and keeps Almanac followers up to date on indicators, hot-topics, market happenings, speaking, news, and media coverage. In addition, there are additional books by Jeffrey Hirsch, John Person, or published under the Almanac Investor Series include The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles and Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It by Jeff Hirsch; Forex Conquered: High Probability Systems and Strategies for Active Traders, Candlestick and Pivot Point Trading Triggers: Setups for Stock, Forex, and Futures Markets, + CD-ROM;and A Complete Guide to Technical Trading Tactics: How to Profit Using Pivot Points, Candlesticks & Other Indicators by John Person; The MAGNET Method of Investing by Jordan Kimmel; Double Your Money in America's Finest Companies by Bill Staton; and America's Finest Companies 2010: 19th Annual Investment Directory (E-Book Only) by Bill Staton with Mary Staton.

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