Impact of Climate Change on China Explored in New Plant Science Virtual Issue
New research into the impact of climate change on Chinese cereal crops
has found rainfall has a greater impact than rising temperature. The
research, published in the Journal
of the Science of Food and Agriculture found that while maize is
sensitive to warming increases in temperature from 1980 onwards
correlated with both higher and lower yields of rice and wheat.
The study was carried by Dr. Tianyi Zhang, from the Institute of
Atmospheric Physics, and Dr. Yao Huang, from the Institute of Botany,
both at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper is part of a special
collection of free articles on the links between climate change,
agriculture and the function of plants.
“China has experienced significant climate change over the last
century”, said Zhang. “The annual mean air temperature increased by 1.1
°C from 1951 to 2001, rainfall in Western China increased by up to 15%
per decade and decreased in the North.”
“Projections from climate models predict that mean temperature could
rise by 2.3–3.3 °C by 2050 while rainfall could increase by 5–7%,” said
Huang. “This could have a major impact on China’s agriculture which
accounts for 7% of the world's arable land but feeds about 22% of the
global population.”
The authors turned to China’s provincial agricultural statistics and
compared the data to climate information from the China Meteorological
Administration. They focused their analysis on China’s main cereal
crops, rice, which is grown throughout China, as well as wheat and
maize, which are mainly grown in the North.
The results show a significant warming trend in China from 1980 to 2008
and that maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, they also
found that rising temperature collated with both higher and lower wheat
and rice yields, refuting the thoughts that warming often results in a
decline in harvests.
“Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in
yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower rainfall, which
mainly occurred in northern parts of China,” said Zhang. “This suggests
it was potentially droughts, relative to warming, that more affected
harvest yields in the current climate.”
“It is often claimed that the rising temperature causes a decrease in
the yields of Chinese cereal crops, yet our results show that warming
had no significant harmful effect on cereal yields especially for rice
and wheat at a national scale from 1980 to 2008,” concluded Zhang.
“However, warming may still play an indirect role, like the exacerbated
drought conditions caused by the rising temperatures.”
This special collection of free articles is featured on the new Life
Science pages on wileychina.com, which are being launched from March
2012 to create a Life Sciences Centre for the Chinese research community.
New research into the impact of climate change on Chinese cereal crops
has found rainfall has a greater impact than rising temperature. The
research, published in the Journal
of the Science of Food and Agriculture found that while maize is
sensitive to warming increases in temperature from 1980 onwards
correlated with both higher and lower yields of rice and wheat.
The study was carried by Dr. Tianyi Zhang, from the Institute of
Atmospheric Physics, and Dr. Yao Huang, from the Institute of Botany,
both at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper is part of a special
collection of free articles on the links between climate change,
agriculture and the function of plants.
“China has experienced significant climate change over the last
century”, said Zhang. “The annual mean air temperature increased by 1.1
°C from 1951 to 2001, rainfall in Western China increased by up to 15%
per decade and decreased in the North.”
“Projections from climate models predict that mean temperature could
rise by 2.3–3.3 °C by 2050 while rainfall could increase by 5–7%,” said
Huang. “This could have a major impact on China’s agriculture which
accounts for 7% of the world's arable land but feeds about 22% of the
global population.”
The authors turned to China’s provincial agricultural statistics and
compared the data to climate information from the China Meteorological
Administration. They focused their analysis on China’s main cereal
crops, rice, which is grown throughout China, as well as wheat and
maize, which are mainly grown in the North.
The results show a significant warming trend in China from 1980 to 2008
and that maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, they also
found that rising temperature collated with both higher and lower wheat
and rice yields, refuting the thoughts that warming often results in a
decline in harvests.
“Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in
yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower rainfall, which
mainly occurred in northern parts of China,” said Zhang. “This suggests
it was potentially droughts, relative to warming, that more affected
harvest yields in the current climate.”
“It is often claimed that the rising temperature causes a decrease in
the yields of Chinese cereal crops, yet our results show that warming
had no significant harmful effect on cereal yields especially for rice
and wheat at a national scale from 1980 to 2008,” concluded Zhang.
“However, warming may still play an indirect role, like the exacerbated
drought conditions caused by the rising temperatures.”
This special collection of free articles is featured on the new Life
Science pages on wileychina.com, which are being launched from March
2012 to create a Life Sciences Centre for the Chinese research community.
To view this news release in Chinese, please visit EurekAlert!
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